Based on the market dropping and prices increasing, do you think we bound for a recession? I keep reading and hearing that our economy seems to be ripe for one. To be honest, it is frightening because it seems like our world is topsy turvy with all the wild things coming from the news. The trade war and prices increasing and the marketing losing money doesn't seem like a good thing in the near future. Are you planning on doing anything to combat this?
I feel like we are already trying to save money. Granted, we are spending money on things, but DH and I were discussing what else we can cut back on. Which just feeds into more economic woes if enough of us do that.
We already planned on planting a small garden. I've started a few things from seeds and have them on the sunporch. Hopefull they will sprout. I continue to make my own bread. I buy things on sale. But even so, we spent almost a hundred dollars at the grocery store yesterday and we didn't bring home a whole lot. Fortunately we can afford it, but I don't know how people who are already struggling are going to make it.
So, what are your thoughts?
March 11th, 2025 at 11:15 pm 1741734955
Old alliances are breaking and new ones forming.
Lots of people are going to be hurt economically.
I will not be surprised if we end up in a war.
I am glad I am old and have no children.
I am holding in the market because I don’t think the billionaires controlling the Republicans will ultimately let him tank the markets, and even if we go to war, that can be good for the economy.
Those with near nothing will be devastated - I read something this week about how when Reagan closed all the facilities that provided mental health care the people ended up on the streets. I fear the same will happen with nursing homes.
We will each have to decide how deep we will cut our own comforts to support those we know who are in distress.
March 12th, 2025 at 07:25 am 1741764315
March 12th, 2025 at 08:36 pm 1741811796
March 13th, 2025 at 12:25 am 1741825525
I am not planning on making portfolio changes. The stock market can have large short-term reactions to current events. But in the long-term, stock prices are driven by profits (or the lack thereof). I continue to believe that corporations as a whole will figure out how to be profitable. Indeed, US corporations seem to be poised to enter a golden age with fewer regulations and fewer taxes.
I am also very concerned about the future of the ACA, as its loss could well prove fatal to me. For others as well, of course.
March 13th, 2025 at 11:24 am 1741865092
As planned, I bought more into this market to increase my own positions in this correction.
Can it technically go into recession? Well, technically yes. NASDAQ is already into Corrections, and S&P might be too, though I am not certain. All we need is for this correction to last long enough to "recess", which I am confident that our Stable Genius is fully capable of guiding us into it.
Still though, the US economy has recovered from the Covid lockdown, as well as the house market bubble burst, and I am confident that the US economy will also eventually recover from Trump's buffoonery as well.
March 13th, 2025 at 08:35 pm 1741898118
March 14th, 2025 at 08:50 pm 1741985405
March 15th, 2025 at 04:22 am 1742012540
March 15th, 2025 at 08:19 pm 1742069986
March 16th, 2025 at 03:12 pm 1742137954
One of the things I learned from the Krugman-Dutta interview is that one of the best indicators of a coming recession is the "Sahm rule," and if you google "real time Sahm rule," you will see that that indicator is NOT currently particularly elevated. (It's an oddity of economics that, during the time you are actually IN a recession, a recession has NOT actually been declared, because the definition is retrospective--you have to wait for two consecutive quarters where GDP is down to declare one, so by the time one is actually declared, you might even be in recovery.
One thing to keep an eye out for with the current administration is that the current Secretary of Commerce, Howard Lutnick, has proposed redefining the way that GDP is calculated so as to mask the effects of what the administration is doing.
One of the basic things you learn in macroeconomics is that Gross Domestic Product, or GDP, is a sum of Consumer Spending + Business Investment + Government Spending + the net of Exports minus Imports. Since the current adminstration is focused on cutting government spending, Lutnick has suggested that the official calculation of GDP be redefined to exclude government spending, which would inflate current results and make current data incomparable with past decades and decades of data.
March 16th, 2025 at 06:29 pm 1742149751
March 17th, 2025 at 12:57 am 1742173073